José Duarte, PhD

Category: climate change

  • Hurricanes as imagined, construed, and filtered

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    Klotzbach and Landsea have published an interesting new paper in Journal of Climate on the frequency and percentage of Category 4-5 hurricanes. Title: Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) After 10 Years Abstract: Webster et al. (2005) documented a large and significant increase in both the number as well as the percentage of…

  • Nimble skepticism (Updated)

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    The Karl et al. study highlights something I’ve been thinking about lately. I don’t know if the Karl paper is important, good, or bad. It claims to debunk the slowdown in surface warming. Other papers will claim the opposite. This won’t be the end of it, but imagine that it was – imagine that we…

  • Correction / counting

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    Correction: In one of my posts on the Cook fraud, I listed 19 social science, survey, marketing, and opinion papers that were coded as “climate papers” endorsing of anthropogenic warming. I made a mistake listing this one: Vandenplas, P. E. 1998. “Reflections on the Past and Future of Fusion and Plasma Physics Research.” Plasma Physics…

  • The climate science consensus is 78 – 84 percent (Updated)

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    I think I’ve been negligent in not making the actual climate science consensus known to people. In one of my projects it occurred to me that no one has made the information readily available, at least not to my knowledge. I’ll save the details for the journal article, but I think a quick snapshot of…

  • How not to report science

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    I was disappointed to see this article by Gayathri Vaidyanathan in Scientific American: How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research. It’s an attempt to defang the recent surge of interest in Bjørn Stevens’ aerosol forcing estimates. To some people, those estimates imply a lower estimate of ECS, and a reduced likelihood of the more extreme future warming scenarios…

  • The “Hottest year on record” fallacy

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    2014 was the hottest year on record by some hundredths of a degree. It was not significantly hotter than 2005 or 2010. See the Berkeley BEST lab for details. Global surface warming paused or slowed down after 1998 – there is some dispute about whether to call it a pause or a slowdown. We’ll treat…

  • On fraud

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    I’ve never had to think about scientific fraud until the last few months. It’s been an interesting journey. I’ve got a paper coming soon that focuses on this issue. I’m of two minds about the need to think about it. It raises interesting ethical and epistemological questions, and I’m deeply interested in both ethics and…

  • Methods

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    Let’s say you want to find out what climate skeptics think and why they think it. What’s a better method? 1. Find a registry on the blogosphere where climate skeptics have laid out their views in some detail, and how they came to those views, as well as their educational and professional backgrounds. Read these…

  • Comment on Verheggen et al.; climate consensus research

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    Here’s my recent Comment on Verheggen et al. in Environmental Science & Technology.  Their core argument in their Reply is that all the non-climate scientists who were invited to participate in this survey because of their climate-related papers – all the psychologists, sociologists, Marxists, economists, palladium experts, etc. – would deny having done any climate-related…

  • Lewis and Curry

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    This is interesting. Lewis and Curry estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) at 1.64°C. That’s remarkably low. If it turns out to be true – and it seems like we won’t know the true value for ECS for another decade or longer – then AGW would have been largely overstated. The estimates constantly change, which is…