Writings and critical analysis on social psychology, scientific methodology, and measurement integrity.https://joseduarte.com/en-ushttps://joseduarte.com/blog/debunking-and-discovery-in-social-psychology/https://joseduarte.com/blog/debunking-and-discovery-in-social-psychology/Most reported social-psych findings fail replication. Debunking false claims is not second-class science; it clears a path when originals bury nulls.Sun, 13 Dec 2015 01:45:00 GMTreplication crisisdebunkingsocial psychologyscientific discoveryhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/is-social-psychology-self-correcting/https://joseduarte.com/blog/is-social-psychology-self-correcting/Social psychology has not self-corrected political bias. No hiring or journal fixes exist; “science is self-correcting” assumes machinery never built.Wed, 21 Oct 2015 03:12:00 GMTself-correctionpolitical biasHeterodox AcademyAlice Eaglyhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/are-minorities-throttling-their-efforts/https://joseduarte.com/blog/are-minorities-throttling-their-efforts/Do diversity primes lead minorities to ease off before tests and promotions? Chronic strategic effort cuts could widen skill gaps; it needs experiments.Thu, 15 Oct 2015 15:50:00 GMTeffort reductiondiversity primesaffirmative actionachievementhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/evolutionary-psychology-must-be-constrained-by-evolutionary-biology/https://joseduarte.com/blog/evolutionary-psychology-must-be-constrained-by-evolutionary-biology/Grasslands survival-memory effects are not Pleistocene adaptations. Invariant scenery is not a selection problem; evo psych must answer to evo biology.Sat, 10 Oct 2015 00:40:00 GMTevolutionary psychologyadaptive memoryNairneevolutionary biologyhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/new-article-in-pacific-standard/https://joseduarte.com/blog/new-article-in-pacific-standard/Angela Chen’s Pacific Standard piece on the BBS paper hits a neglected point: Big Five openness items track urban taste more than a culture-free trait.Tue, 06 Oct 2015 16:24:00 GMTPacific StandardAngela Chenopenness to experienceliberal biashttps://joseduarte.com/blog/the-leon-project/https://joseduarte.com/blog/the-leon-project/The Leon Project would warehouse social-science data and tagged hypotheses for live meta-analysis. Pooled samples could test effects in minority groups.Sun, 04 Oct 2015 21:36:00 GMTLeon Projectopen datameta-analysissocial psychologymetadatahttps://joseduarte.com/blog/muslim-presidents/https://joseduarte.com/blog/muslim-presidents/Carson’s Muslim-president veto treats a stereotype as a person. For high office, individual evidence should retire group priors, as Kennedy argued in 1960.Sun, 27 Sep 2015 18:18:00 GMTBen CarsonstereotypesMuslim presidentJFKindividual evidencehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/heterodox-academy/https://joseduarte.com/blog/heterodox-academy/Heterodox Academy launches against one-ideology academia. Social science needs non-leftists and apolitical scientists so review can catch embedded values.Wed, 23 Sep 2015 00:48:00 GMTHeterodox Academyviewpoint diversityJonathan Haidtpolitical biashttps://joseduarte.com/blog/needless-suffering-call-a-mexican/https://joseduarte.com/blog/needless-suffering-call-a-mexican/Untrained faculty mentors inflict needless graduate-student suffering. Global “you suck” judgments are not pedagogy. The author offers to listen.Mon, 21 Sep 2015 02:12:00 GMTgraduate schoolmentorshipacademiastudent mental healthhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/what-ive-learned-researching-the-emotion-of-envy/https://joseduarte.com/blog/what-ive-learned-researching-the-emotion-of-envy/Recalled envy episodes beat canned lab inductions. Sister-to-sister rivalry is a raw elicitor. Measure the emotion by function, not just the everyday word.Sat, 05 Sep 2015 01:42:00 GMTenvyemotionsibling rivalryelicitation methodssocial psychologyhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/hurricanes-as-imagined-construed-and-filtered/https://joseduarte.com/blog/hurricanes-as-imagined-construed-and-filtered/Klotzbach and Landsea find no significant rise in Cat 4-5 storms after better data. Media will hype scare papers and bury this--filtered climate reality.Thu, 03 Sep 2015 19:30:00 GMThurricanesKlotzbachLandseaclimate mediaCategory 4-5https://joseduarte.com/blog/minors-lewandowsky-and-ceremonial-ethics/https://joseduarte.com/blog/minors-lewandowsky-and-ceremonial-ethics/PLOS ONE forced a correction, but Lewandowsky kept 14-17-year-olds without prior IRB consent. UWA’s retroactive ethics blessing is ceremonial, not ethical.Mon, 31 Aug 2015 19:24:00 GMTresearch ethicsminorsLewandowskyPLOS ONEIRBhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/nimble-skepticism/https://joseduarte.com/blog/nimble-skepticism/If new evidence kills the warming slowdown, skeptics should drop the identity. Climate is not a team; surface records are estimates, not meter readings.Fri, 05 Jun 2015 16:24:00 GMTclimate skepticismThomas Karlwarming hiatusidentityECShttps://joseduarte.com/blog/correction-counting/https://joseduarte.com/blog/correction-counting/One listed Cook paper was mitigation, not endorsement; a welding paper was explicit endorsement. Fraudulent studies have no percentage left to recompute.Wed, 03 Jun 2015 19:50:00 GMTJohn Cook97 percentvalidityretractionclimate consensushttps://joseduarte.com/blog/all-sides/https://joseduarte.com/blog/all-sides/Exposing Cook’s fraud is not climate skepticism. AGW is not history’s biggest hoax. Fraud means willful lies about methods, not merely lower ECS estimates.Mon, 01 Jun 2015 21:48:00 GMTclimate skepticismscientific fraudAGWintegrityJohn Cookhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/the-climate-science-consensus-is-78-84-percent/https://joseduarte.com/blog/the-climate-science-consensus-is-78-84-percent/Qualified surveys of climate scientists put attribution consensus at 78-84%, not 97%. Cook-style abstract ratings are not surveys and should not set it.Mon, 01 Jun 2015 03:27:00 GMTclimate consensus78-84 percentsurveysJohn Cook97 percenthttps://joseduarte.com/blog/gays-islam-and-the-virtue-of-cognition/https://joseduarte.com/blog/gays-islam-and-the-virtue-of-cognition/Polls, not sermons, settle whether Muslim societies accept homosexuality. Most do not; executions are real. Ideology that denies the data abandons reality.Sat, 23 May 2015 22:27:00 GMTIslamhomosexualitypollingPewmoral cognitionhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/sam-harris-jon-haidt-and-bias/https://joseduarte.com/blog/sam-harris-jon-haidt-and-bias/Haidt’s certainty-word counts and Harris’s moral science both miss how bias works. Shared blind spots survive peer review when almost everyone shares them.Fri, 22 May 2015 00:27:00 GMTSam HarrisJonathan Haidtmoral landscapebiasphilosophy of sciencehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/ispp/https://joseduarte.com/blog/ispp/Duarte chairs an ISPP session on political bias: Bilewicz on status vs. liberal bias; Duarte on ideological assumptions that quietly wreck study validity.Thu, 21 May 2015 20:12:00 GMTISPPpolitical psychologyideological biasJose Duarteconferenceshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/ideologically-fueled-research/https://joseduarte.com/blog/ideologically-fueled-research/Some psychologists pathologize non-leftists to resolve dissonance. System-justification and green “denial” items smuggle values into purported facts.Wed, 20 May 2015 22:57:00 GMTJohn Jostsystem justificationideological biasenvironmentalismvalidityhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/call-for-examples-of-politically-biased-research/https://joseduarte.com/blog/call-for-examples-of-politically-biased-research/Wanted: social-science studies that bake ideology into measures. Caricature scales like RWA and SDO, rarely endorsed yet tied to conservatives, qualify.Wed, 20 May 2015 15:33:00 GMTpolitical biasRWASDOcaricature scalessocial sciencehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/scientific-american-column-on-duarte-et-al/https://joseduarte.com/blog/scientific-american-column-on-duarte-et-al/Valdesolo covers the BBS paper well. Openness and RWA scales encode urban-left taste; conservatives rarely endorse the cartoon items treated as “high.”Tue, 19 May 2015 17:57:00 GMTDuarte et al.openness to experienceRWApolitical biasScientific Americanhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/april-30th-2015/https://joseduarte.com/blog/april-30th-2015/Political homogeneity threatens social-science validity because ideologies smuggle human-nature assumptions into measures. Diversity is an epistemic tool.Thu, 30 Apr 2015 22:42:00 GMTAndrew Gelmanpolitical diversityvalidityBBS papersocial sciencehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/dont-be-a-skeptic-the-noun-problem/https://joseduarte.com/blog/dont-be-a-skeptic-the-noun-problem/Prefer the adjective: be skeptical of a claim, not “a skeptic.” Nouns become tribes. Evidence can move; identities resist. “Denier” is not a trait.Sat, 25 Apr 2015 23:10:00 GMTskepticismidentityclimatemotivated reasoningdenierhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/how-not-to-report-science/https://joseduarte.com/blog/how-not-to-report-science/Scientific American attacked Nic Lewis on aerosol forcing without quoting him. One-sided climate coverage is advocacy, not science journalism.Thu, 23 Apr 2015 23:54:00 GMTScientific AmericanNic LewisBjorn Stevensclimate journalismECShttps://joseduarte.com/blog/spending-money-on-experiences-instead-of-objects-makes-you-happier/https://joseduarte.com/blog/spending-money-on-experiences-instead-of-objects-makes-you-happier/Experiences beat objects for 57% of people--and things won for 34%. Happiness headlines hide large minorities; the spend-on-trips advice is not universal.Thu, 02 Apr 2015 01:48:00 GMTexperiential purchaseshappinessGilovichVan Bovenmain effectshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/hottest-year-on-record/https://joseduarte.com/blog/hottest-year-on-record/On a temperature plateau, any year has a decent shot at “hottest on record.” That slogan does not refute a pause; some scientists botched the probability.Thu, 05 Mar 2015 20:27:00 GMThottest year on recordwarming pauseprobabilityclimate mediahttps://joseduarte.com/blog/eight-fingers-and-more-type-1-error/https://joseduarte.com/blog/eight-fingers-and-more-type-1-error/A base-8 culture would likely set alpha at “0.04,” equal to 0.0625 in base-10. Looser cutoffs would publish more false positives. Ten fingers shaped 0.05.Mon, 02 Mar 2015 15:12:00 GMTType I errorp-value thresholdnumber basesstatistical conventionhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/p-values-banned/https://joseduarte.com/blog/p-values-banned/Basic and Applied Social Psychology banned p-values and confidence intervals. Descriptive stats outrank inferential ones; a small p is not an effect.Thu, 26 Feb 2015 19:54:00 GMTp-valuesBASPconfidence intervalsdescriptive statisticshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/375/https://joseduarte.com/blog/375/Inbar and Lammers: 37.5% of social psychologists would discriminate against conservative job candidates. On committees that rate is likely career-ending.Wed, 25 Feb 2015 20:24:00 GMTInbar and Lammerspolitical discriminationsocial psychologyviewpoint diversityhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/hot-off-the-presses/https://joseduarte.com/blog/hot-off-the-presses/Two JPSP papers: Finkel et al. weigh false-positive reform against misses; Waytz et al. find that mental simulation raises reported meaning in life.Wed, 25 Feb 2015 04:42:00 GMTJPSPrelationship sciencemental simulationmeaning in lifereplication reformhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/envy-social-comparison-non-envy/https://joseduarte.com/blog/envy-social-comparison-non-envy/Hostility to outspoken idealists often sounds like “she thinks she’s better than us.” That comparison sting resembles malicious envy and is understudied.Wed, 25 Feb 2015 00:57:00 GMTenvysocial comparisonJudith Currymaliceidealismhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/spsp-data/https://joseduarte.com/blog/spsp-data/SPSP’s integrity symposium is a draw. Student samples weaken claims; invalid methods make data cheap. Field and workplace samples would travel farther.Tue, 24 Feb 2015 19:40:00 GMTSPSPscientific integritystudent samplesresearch methodshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/sweet-things/https://joseduarte.com/blog/sweet-things/Latent class models beat linear correlations by keeping respondent profiles intact. Also needed: self-esteem scales that do not smuggle in narcissism.Tue, 24 Feb 2015 15:10:00 GMTlatent class modelingself-esteemnarcissismpsychometricshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/on-fraud/https://joseduarte.com/blog/on-fraud/Scientific fraud is deception, not only fake cells in a freezer. False titles the authors’ own spreadsheet refutes meet standard falsification tests.Mon, 23 Feb 2015 20:00:00 GMTscientific fraudfalsificationLewandowskyJohn Cookresearch misconducthttps://joseduarte.com/blog/methods/https://joseduarte.com/blog/methods/To learn why skeptics think as they do, read their own accounts--not a blog survey that ties them to moon-hoax items almost none of them endorse.Fri, 20 Feb 2015 00:36:00 GMTsurvey methodsclimate skepticsLewandowskyvalidityhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/structure-of-malpractice-1-the-frog-jump/https://joseduarte.com/blog/structure-of-malpractice-1-the-frog-jump/The frog jump: correlate a lopsided agree/disagree scale, then report the empty opposite pole. Linear r on dichotomous items can invert the truth.Thu, 19 Feb 2015 21:54:00 GMTfrog jumpLikert scalescorrelation misusepsychometricshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/significance/https://joseduarte.com/blog/significance/Statistical significance is not binary. The 0.05 cutoff is a ten-finger convention for Type-1 control--not proof a hypothesis is true in nature.Sun, 15 Feb 2015 20:24:00 GMTp-valuesstatistical significanceType I errornull hypothesishttps://joseduarte.com/blog/on-prestige-of-universities-vs-graduate-programs/https://joseduarte.com/blog/on-prestige-of-universities-vs-graduate-programs/University brand is not graduate-program quality. ASU social psychology is elite; public-ivy prestige tracks undergrad selectivity, not the PhD shop.Sat, 14 Feb 2015 17:10:00 GMTgraduate schoolASUprogram prestigePhD admissionshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/comment-on-verheggen-et-al-climate-consensus-research/https://joseduarte.com/blog/comment-on-verheggen-et-al-climate-consensus-research/Verheggen et al. invited non-climate authors and cannot say who answered. Consensus research is often junk; valid surveys still show a real majority.Fri, 13 Feb 2015 23:40:00 GMTVerheggenclimate consensusES&Tsurvey methodsAGWhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/i-was-denied-admission-to-a-phd-program-because-of-my-perceived-political-views-reflections-of-a-sellout-how-diversity-would-strengthen-social-science/https://joseduarte.com/blog/i-was-denied-admission-to-a-phd-program-because-of-my-perceived-political-views-reflections-of-a-sellout-how-diversity-would-strengthen-social-science/A PhD program rejected the author after a Jimmy Carter critique. Viewpoint discrimination harms validity; social science needs heterodox voices.Tue, 10 Feb 2015 20:40:00 GMTviewpoint discriminationgraduate admissionspolitical biasBBS paperhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/how-one-paleo-participant-can-change-the-outcome-of-a-study/https://joseduarte.com/blog/how-one-paleo-participant-can-change-the-outcome-of-a-study/A 32,757-year-old in Lewandowsky’s PLOS ONE file erased real age correlations. Minors stayed in; authors knew for a year and still reported false results.Wed, 07 Jan 2015 02:10:00 GMTLewandowskyPLOS ONEoutliersminorsresearch ethicshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/new-yorker-article/https://joseduarte.com/blog/new-yorker-article/Konnikova’s New Yorker piece frames the BBS paper as anti-Republican bias. The deeper problem is one academic subculture’s assumptions in methods.Sun, 09 Nov 2014 21:57:00 GMTMaria Konnikovaviewpoint diversityBBS papersocial psychologyhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/heritability-of-academic-prowess/https://joseduarte.com/blog/heritability-of-academic-prowess/Twin data put GCSE scores about 62% heritable, traits 35-58%. Heritability is variance explained, not destiny; ideas and settings can still shift it.Tue, 07 Oct 2014 02:20:00 GMTheritabilitytwin studiesacademic achievementgeneticsGCSEhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/lewis-and-curry/https://joseduarte.com/blog/lewis-and-curry/Lewis and Curry put climate sensitivity near 1.64C, far below many IPCC figures. If that holds, warming was overstated; ECS estimates keep moving.Sat, 27 Sep 2014 04:30:00 GMTequilibrium climate sensitivityNic LewisJudith CurryECShttps://joseduarte.com/blog/your-mileage-may-vary/https://joseduarte.com/blog/your-mileage-may-vary/Smiling raised happiness for some people and lowered it for others. Main effects mislead; a significant r can ride on a small slice of a sample.Sat, 20 Sep 2014 00:15:00 GMTsmilinghappinessmain effectsindividual differencescorrelationshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/no-results/https://joseduarte.com/blog/no-results/Cook raters googled authors and mocked skeptics. Fraud plus an invalid method means there is no 97%--no number at all. Results require methods.Fri, 19 Sep 2014 04:57:00 GMTJohn Cookvaliditymethods97 percentscientific fraudhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/classifying-words-during-sleep/https://joseduarte.com/blog/classifying-words-during-sleep/Sleeping brains still sorted new animal vs. object words, Kouider’s EEG study found. Meaning extraction continued after subjects drifted off.Fri, 12 Sep 2014 04:36:00 GMTsleepEEGSid Kouiderword classificationneurosciencehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/the-art-of-evasion/https://joseduarte.com/blog/the-art-of-evasion/Cook’s team never answered the fraud case. They claimed blind, independent raters they did not use; without those methods, there are no results.Wed, 10 Sep 2014 02:40:00 GMTJohn Cookrater blindnessscientific fraudERL97 percenthttps://joseduarte.com/blog/harms/https://joseduarte.com/blog/harms/Have you been harmed after being labeled a climate skeptic? The post asks whether Lewandowsky’s false hoax links leaked into work and dating.Sun, 07 Sep 2014 00:30:00 GMTclimate skepticsdiscriminationLewandowskysocial stigmahttps://joseduarte.com/blog/medical-records-hacked/https://joseduarte.com/blog/medical-records-hacked/A 4.5-million-record hospital hack shows clinics lack real infosec. Assume records are compromised, and watch what you write on intake forms.Sat, 06 Sep 2014 00:42:00 GMThealthcare hackmedical privacyinfosecpatient recordshttps://joseduarte.com/blog/cooking-stove-use-housing-associations-white-males-and-the-97/https://joseduarte.com/blog/cooking-stove-use-housing-associations-white-males-and-the-97/Cook et al. coded stove surveys, housing papers, and TV-news studies as AGW endorsement. The 97% figure is fraudulent and should be retracted.Thu, 28 Aug 2014 21:15:00 GMTJohn Cook97 percentERLDaniel Kammenclimate consensus fraudhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/eyes-in-space/https://joseduarte.com/blog/eyes-in-space/In-space 3-D printed mirrors could beat launch limits on telescopes. Bigger monolithic apertures would image exoplanet air and hunt for life.Sat, 23 Aug 2014 03:10:00 GMTspace telescopes3D printingexoplanetsJames Webbaperturehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/kenny-and-the-castle/https://joseduarte.com/blog/kenny-and-the-castle/Australia’s comedies The Castle and Kenny radiate a beautiful sense of life. Both films treat everyday dignity with rare metaphysical optimism.Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:42:00 GMTThe CastleKennyAustralian filmsense of lifehttps://joseduarte.com/blog/data-is-overrated/https://joseduarte.com/blog/data-is-overrated/Invalid studies need no new data to be vacated. Logic can refute Napier & Jost and Lewandowsky; more numbers cannot rescue a validity collapse.Tue, 19 Aug 2014 04:27:00 GMTvalidityepistemologyNapier and JostLewandowskyscientific methodhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/reality-is-what-it-is/https://joseduarte.com/blog/reality-is-what-it-is/Unflattering findings about conservatives are not automatically invalid. Reality is whatever it is; Eidelman et al. looks methodologically clean.Tue, 19 Aug 2014 03:48:00 GMTconservatismlow-effort thoughtvalidityEidelmansocial psychologyhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/more-fraud/https://joseduarte.com/blog/more-fraud/Lewandowsky claimed free-marketeers reject HIV and smoking science. Data show 95-96% agreement; correlations turned assent into “rejection.”Thu, 31 Jul 2014 16:57:00 GMTLewandowskyHIVsmokingfree marketsscientific fraudhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/the-greatest-line-ever/https://joseduarte.com/blog/the-greatest-line-ever/Life’s line “Maybe she’s a real angel with fake wings” models clean logic and optimism. It sidesteps the representativeness heuristic neatly.Thu, 31 Jul 2014 00:00:00 GMTLife TV serieslogicrepresentativeness heuristicromanticismhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/lewandowsky-fraud/https://joseduarte.com/blog/lewandowsky-fraud/Lewandowsky’s moon-landing title is false: 3 of 1,145 endorsed both hoaxes. The paper slanders skeptics and should be retracted as scientific fraud.Wed, 30 Jul 2014 00:57:00 GMTStephan LewandowskyPsychological Sciencemoon landingscientific fraudhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/ignore-climate-consensus-studies-based-on-random-people-rating-journal-article-abstracts/https://joseduarte.com/blog/ignore-climate-consensus-studies-based-on-random-people-rating-journal-article-abstracts/Cook’s 97% paper counted stove surveys and psychology abstracts as climate endorsement. Activist raters cannot measure a scientific consensus.Tue, 22 Jul 2014 22:36:00 GMTJohn Cook97 percentclimate consensusabstract ratinghttps://joseduarte.com/blog/something-is-wrong-with-paul-krugman/https://joseduarte.com/blog/something-is-wrong-with-paul-krugman/Krugman invents a one-for-one GDP claim Pielke never made, then savages him. Disagreement is not stupidity; scholars should not revel in malice.Fri, 06 Jun 2014 04:48:00 GMTPaul KrugmanRoger Pielke Jr.Kaya Identityclimate policyhttps://joseduarte.com/blog/but-climate-scientist-so-and-so-says-its-not-a-big-deal/https://joseduarte.com/blog/but-climate-scientist-so-and-so-says-its-not-a-big-deal/Reading only dissenting climate scientists is confirmation bias. Weigh the majority view too; contrarians remain useful even if they are wrong.Thu, 05 Jun 2014 00:05:00 GMTconfirmation biasclimate consensusclimate skepticsJudith Curry